1. Prominent Market Narratives (Consolidated List):

1. US-China Tensions & Tech Decoupling
2. US Political/Institutional Uncertainty
3. US Trade Policy & Global Economic Impact
4. Central Bank Policy Response
5. Market Sentiment & Risk Aversion

2. Narrative Cycle Mapping and Ranking:

• Narrative: US-China Tensions & Tech Decoupling
• Agency Coverage:
  • Axios: Covered as a consequence of aggressive US trade policy, with mentions of chip restrictions and the structural shift acknowledged by global bodies. Secondary focus compared to domestic policy drivers.
  • Bloomberg: Significant narrative, heavily emphasized as the underlying strategic context for the trade war. Focus on supply chain shifts, tech restrictions (Nvidia, TSMC), and potential forced decoupling.
  • Reuters: Prominent narrative, particularly highlighted in Breakingviews analysis ("crossing a Rubicon," "messy divorce"). Chip sector impacts consistently reported as evidence of decoupling.
• Narrative Cycle Stage: 2 (Momentum Builds) bordering on 3 (Primary Trend)
• Justification: This narrative has moved beyond the "Under the Radar" stage. It's consistently covered by all three agencies, gaining traction and becoming a more widely discussed theme. Key events (chip export restrictions) are explicitly interpreted through this lens. Market participants are reacting (negative impact on semiconductor stocks, supply chain shifts reported). While not yet as pervasively dominant as the core tariff narrative, it shows clear signs of momentum building and is increasingly influencing strategic decisions and market pricing in affected sectors. Confidence is growing, but it's not yet universally accepted as the primary driver for all market action.
• Dominant Sentiment (Overall): Negative / Concerned
• Inferred Price Trend (Based on text): Downward pressure on exposed companies/sectors (e.g., semiconductors, companies reliant on US-China trade).
• Confidence Level: High (Clear trend across agencies, specific evidence cited).
• Narrative: US Political/Institutional Uncertainty
• Agency Coverage:
  • Axios: Very strong emphasis, often the lead narrative ('1 big thing'). Focuses on the use of executive/emergency powers for tariffs, threats to Fed independence, and potential constitutional strain. Framed critically.
  • Bloomberg: Covered as context for policy actions. Mentions use of emergency powers for tariffs, legal challenges, and Trump's pressure on the Fed as contributing to market uncertainty.
  • Reuters: Reports on Trump's pressure on the Fed, legal challenges to tariffs, and the blending of security/economic policy (e.g., troop costs linked to trade). Breakingviews analyzes the implications of defying norms.
• Narrative Cycle Stage: 2 (Momentum Builds)
• Justification: While the consequences (tariffs) are in a later stage, this narrative about the underlying methods and institutional risks is still gaining broader market awareness. Axios highlights it extensively, suggesting it's moving beyond niche concerns. Key events (Fed pressure, legal challenges) are discussed. However, it doesn't appear to be the primary decision-making framework for most market participants compared to the direct economic impact of tariffs. Price action linkage is less direct, contributing more to overall risk premiums and uncertainty rather than specific asset moves. It fits the stage where awareness is spreading beyond specialists, but it's not yet a universally dominant theme driving allocation.
• Dominant Sentiment (Overall): Concerned / Negative
• Inferred Price Trend (Based on text): Unclear direct impact, likely contributes to higher risk premiums and volatility.